China Economic Comment

Research evidence excerpt

China Economic Comment

Global Research

15 July 2026ab

China Economic Comment Economics

ChinaLow 2Q GDP data is good news for the market

Yu Song

Economist

June activity data rebounded as expected. This is what often happens at the end of yu-za.song@ubs.com

+86-10-5832 8508

the quarter months such as March and June, especially when growth is weak. These

rebounds are often the result of front-loading of activities which depresses the level of Jennifer Zhong

growth in the following month. Despite better than market expected June activity data, Economist

2Q GDP was below expectations, reflecting the uncertainties in the relationship S1460516050002

jennifer-a.zhong@ubs.com

between the two data series.

+86-105-832 8324

Grace Wang

Lower than expected GDP reading is a good thing for the market. Market

participants understand the economy is weak and hope to see a meaningful policy S1460524050003

response. A low GDP reading increases the odds of getting such a response. While 4.7% grace-zc.wang@ubs.com

YoY for the 1H is still in the middle of the target range, the 4.3% YoY for 2Q reflects the +86-105-832 8335

recent momentum better. If 2H growth were 4.3% YoY as well the annual growth

William Deng

would fall below the 4.5% lower bound of the target range, since 2H has a larger Economist

weight in annual GDP than 1H. The better reflection of the 2Q growth momentum is william-w.deng@ubs.com

sequential QOQ growth which was just above 3%, down from 5% plus in 1Q. +852-2971 6765

The rise in nominal GDP relative to real GDP is good news but the rise in 2Q was largely

driven by higher energy price. With energy meaningfully lower going into 2H GDP

deflator will be affected as well. Our baseline view is inflation will stay at a low level after

the energy price spike fades.