China Economic Perspectives: New credit remained soft in June; PBoC pledges to keep monetary policy accommodative

Research evidence excerpt

China Economic Perspectives: New credit remained soft in June; PBoC pledges to keep monetary policy accommodative

Global Research

15 July 2026ab

China Economic Perspectives Economics

ChinaNew credit remained soft in June; PBoC pledges

to keep monetary policy accommodative Jennifer Zhong

Economist

jennifer-a.zhong@ubs.com

+86-105-832 8324

New credit remained soft despite policy effort Yu Song

New RMB loans recovered seasonally to RMB 1.61trn in June, still short of a year Economist

ago (RMB -630bn YoY) and market expectation (RMB 1.95trn). Both M&L household S1460526010002

yu-za.song@ubs.comloans and M&L corporate loans remained weaker than a year ago (by RMB -177bn/-

+86-10-5832 8508

450bn YoY, respectively). Bill financing recorded another solid reading as banks were

pressured to increase bank lending, but it was not enough to offset weakness Grace Wang

elsewhere. New TSF recorded RMB 3.36trn in June, RMB 862bn below a year ago Economist

S1460524050003and softer than market expected. Outside loans, issuance of government bonds

grace-zc.wang@ubs.com

softened and much weaker than a year ago. Shadow credit was largely flat YoY while

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corporate bonds improved modestly. Overall, the June reading reveals soft credit

demand, lasting impact from debt swap, and slow pace of government bond issuance. William Deng

william-w.deng@ubs.com

Credit growth weakened on all fronts

+852-2971 6765

We estimate the sequential growth momentum of official TSF slowed to 6% MoM Saar

from 7% in May as that of new loans slid to 3% from 5% previously. Seasonally adjusted

new credit flows softened to 16% of GDP from 20% previously. On a YoY basis, the

official TSF growth slowed by 0.3ppt to 7.4% YoY. Our credit impulse turned more

negative to -3.6% of GDP (vs -2.3% in May).