US Daily Data Recap: Core PCE tracking at 0.18%, better Empire

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Data Recap: Core PCE tracking at 0.18%, better Empire

Global Research

15 July 2026ab

US Daily Data Recap Economics

AmericasCore PCE tracking at 0.18%, better Empire

Amanda Wilcox

Economist

With softer-than-expected PPI details, we estimate headline PCE prices fell -0.06% and amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3899

core PCE prices rose 0.18% in June, while 12-month headline and core PCE inflation

eased to 3.72% and 3.34%, respectively. Friday's import price data could still alter these Jonathan Pingle

estimates by a few basis points. Producer price inflation cooled notably in June, with the Economist

headline PPI falling -0.3% and the core PPI rising just 0.1%. The decline in the headline jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

PPI was driven by a steep drop in energy prices, particularly gasoline.

Alan Detmeister

The Empire State manufacturing index rebounded in July and the new orders and alan.detmeister@ubs.com

shipments subindexes strengthened, while prices indexes moderated. MBA purchase +1-212-713 1222

applications fell -7.3% in the week ending July 10 as mortgage rates edged higher. Total

Abigail WattUS crude oil inventories fell -4.7 million barrels in the week ending July 10, driven by

declines in both commercial and SPR stocks, while oil production continued to move abigail.watt@ubs.com

sideways and exports edged down. The federal budget deficit reached -$120 billion in +1-212-882 6929

June and -$1.367 trillion fiscal year-to-date, as tariff revenues turned sharply negative

Jalen Nichols

due to refunds of previously collected IEEPA duties, that is likely to persist as more than

$100 billion in refund claims are processed. jalen.nichols@ubs.com

+1-212-882 6905

Fed officials this week emphasized that the economic benefits of AI will depend on how