US Economic Perspectives: Warsh: AI structurally disinflationary

Research evidence excerpt

US Economic Perspectives: Warsh: AI structurally disinflationary

Global Research

15 July 2026ab

US Economic Perspectives Economics

AmericasWarsh: AI structurally disinflationary

Jonathan Pingle

Economist

"Do I believe that the productivity improvement over time will be structurally jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

disinflationary? I do." — Chairman Kevin Warsh, July 15, 2026

Abigail Watt

Chairman Warsh lays out view of AI; FOMC speakers inflation vigilance Economist

abigail.watt@ubs.com

Today's testimony was periodically tense, particularly amidst questions over conflicts of +1-212-882 6929

interest concerning both Chairman Warsh's financial disclosures and Governor

Bowman's recent appearance at a closed door event at a bank during the FOMC quiet Alan Detmeister

period. However, the most policy relevant part of Warsh's testimony were his most

alan.detmeister@ubs.com

detailed thoughts yet on the productivity gains to come from AI, which he said he +1-212-713 1222

thought would be disinflationary.

Amanda Wilcox

Warsh's comments come alongside other FOMC speakers today. All expressed a certain amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

amount of vigilance over too-high inflation. Governor Cook said she was prepared to act +1-212-713 3899

if she did not see disinflation soon. FRB of New York Williams noted the risks but said he Jalen Nichols

thought the current stance of policy could return inflation to target. Economist

jalen.nichols@ubs.com

Warsh said AI likely to be structurally disinflationary in his view +1-212-882 6905

In his second day of testimony Chairman Warsh repeated his view that AI likely

represents regime shift higher in structural productivity growth and expansion of the

supply side of the economy, building on his remarks before the House yesterday which

we covered here.