US Daily Data Recap

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Data Recap

Global Research

14 July 2026ab

US Daily Data Recap Economics

AmericasCooler CPI & Warsh heads to Hill

Amanda Wilcox

Economist

The June CPI report came in much weaker than expected, with headline CPI falling - amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3899

0.42% and core CPI slipping -0.02%, leading 12-month headline inflation to drop to

3.53% and core inflation to ease to 2.59%. The decline was driven largely by a -9.5% Jonathan Pingle

drop in gasoline and other energy prices, reversing the energy-led inflation surge seen Economist

earlier this spring, while weakness in core inflation was concentrated in volatile jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

categories and may have been amplified by seasonal-adjustment distortions. Despite

placing limited weight on the unusually soft June readings, we view the data as Alan Detmeister

consistent with the idea that inflation likely peaked in May and is now trending lower. Economist

The path ahead is likely uneven. With today’s data in hand, we project that June core alan.detmeister@ubs.com

+1-212-713 1222

PCE prices rose 0.21% and headline PCE prices fell -0.04%. June PPI and import price

data due out later this week could alter these estimates notably. See Alan’s recap here. Abigail Watt

abigail.watt@ubs.com

Alongside the CPI report, real hourly earnings rose in June as inflation fell, driven by +1-212-882 6929

lower energy prices, but the gain only partially reversed the prior three months of

Jalen Nichols

declines and left real wages slightly below their February level.

jalen.nichols@ubs.com

Chair Warsh told Congress this morning that he sees the Fed at a "hinge point in +1-212-882 6905

history" and senses a "sea change in new thinking," but his testimony largely reiterated