ASML Catalysts Are Building, Not Fading. Buy

Research evidence excerpt

ASML Catalysts Are Building, Not Fading. Buy

ch Cons.

2028, versus cons expectations of just +11% and +7%, respectively. Given the 12/26E 33.33 39.51 19 31.92

attractive margin profile of immersion tools, this capacity upside is the key 12/27E 52.90 58.41 10 44.57

driver of gross margin revisions. We estimate 85-90 EUV tools in 2027 and 100-110 12/28E 68.02 77.46 14 54.04

in 2028 can support $200-210bn WFE and $250B+ respectively.

Francois-Xavier Bouvignies

2) Pricing could increase. Gross margin is new and likely sustainable Analyst

francois.bouvignies@ubs.com

ASML's FY26 GM guidance of 55% was well ahead of consensus expectations of 52%. +44-20-7568 7105

The upside is being driven by strength in the upgrades business, a favourable mix shift

Nicolas Gaudoistowards EUV and immersion systems, and operating leverage from higher shipment

Analyst

volumes. Importantly, we view all three drivers as sustainable into 2027. In addition, nicolas.gaudois@ubs.com

pricing seems like an increasingly likely lever that ASML will pull as demand +65-6495 5148

continues to outpace available capacity across several parts of the portfolio.

Harry Blaiklock, CFA

3) High-NA momentum continues to build harry.blaiklock@ubs.com

High-NA momentum is building. Intel has now qualified High-NA for selected Panther +44-20-7568 5385

Lake 18A layers, an important step towards broader industry adoption. ASML reiterated

expectations for follow-on High-NA orders in H2 2026 or early 2027, which should

support installations in 2028–29 and the ramp to HVM.

Valuation: DCF- based price target €2,250/share (WACC 9%, g3%)

We increase our 2026E-28E EPS by 10-19% to reflect higher revenues and GM. Our

price target increases to €2,250 from €2,100, driven the uplift to EPS.