Initiation of Coverage National Medical Care Company: A Healthy Prescription for Growth

Research evidence excerpt

Initiation of Coverage National Medical Care Company: A Healthy Prescription for Growth

Global Research

16 July 2026ab

Initiation of Coverage

EquitiesNational Medical Care Company

A Healthy Prescription for Growth Saudi Arabia

Healthcare Providers

12-month rating Buy

Initiate coverage with a BUY rating Prior : No Rating

We initiate coverage of National Medical Care (“CARE”) with a BUY rating. CARE is one 12m price target SR130.00

of the largest hospital operators in Riyadh by bed capacity. Following two years of Prior :

volume-driven, double-digit growth, we expect near-term growth to moderate to the

Price (14 Jul 2026) SR109.50

low- to mid-single digits. However, growth should reaccelerate from FY28/FY29 with the

opening of the Al Narjis Hospital in 2028. Unlike premium private operators, CARE RIC: 4005.SE BBG: CARE AB

operates a volume-driven, quasi-public healthcare model, with significant exposure to Trading data and key metrics

MoH contracts and GOSI patient flows, both of which carry a higher margin and

52-wk range SR182.00-97.90

sustained volumes, which expect to remain strong over our forecast horizon. Serving a

Market cap. SR4.91b/US$1.31b

large and underserved segment of the market, we expect strong in/outpatient growth to

Shares o/s 44.8m (ORD)

continue, with utilisation remaining >75% throughout our forecast period. Combined,

these factors support our view that CARE will deliver on its ambition to grow share. Free float 51%

Avg. daily volume ('000) 197

The Key Investment Debate: Margin Durability Avg. daily value (m) SR21.2

We expect CARE to sustain EBITDA margins around 30% ahead of the Al Narjis hospital Common s/h equity (12/26E) SR2.12b

opening (+400 beds; +34%), supported by improving utilisation, favourable operating P/BV (12/26E) 2.3x