Initiate at Buy—Entering the Goldilocks Zone for Revenue and Earnings Growth

Research evidence excerpt

Initiate at Buy—Entering the Goldilocks Zone for Revenue and Earnings Growth

Moody's Corporation (MCO)

Equity Research

July 17, 2026

Executive Summary

We initiate coverage of Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO), a global provider of credit ratings,

research, tools, and analytics to the capital markets, with a Buy rating and a 12-month price target

of $610. The company is headquartered in New York, NY, and employs approximately 16,000 people

across more than 40 different countries. It generates revenues through two business lines, with

Investors Service (MIS) accounting for 53% of revenues, and Analytics (MA) accounting for 47%

of revenues.

Over the past 5 years, MCO has grown revenues and adj EPS at a CAGR of 7.5% and 8.0%,

respectively, inclusive of a period of unfavorable market conditions. Over the next three years, we

believe the company is well-positioned to grow these figures at slightly faster CAGR of 7.5% and 12.2%,

respectively. This reflects the company's leadership position in both ratings and analytics, which we

view as sustainable, as well as constructive market conditions given debt issuance is expected to

remain strong over the coming years due to structural tailwinds from the upcoming debt maturity wall,

improving M&A activity, and AI infrastructure investment. More near-term, we view 2026 guidance

as highly achievable and are modeling revenue and adj EPS growth of +6.7% y/y and +11.8% y/y,

respectively.

In coming to our Buy rating, we also note the following considerations:

1. Market leadership in credit ratings with a large refinancing wall and structural tailwinds

2. Increasing visibility through the expansion of recurring revenues

3. Beneficiary of AI integration and technological innovation

4.