F1Q27 TTWO Preview: Staying the Course

Research evidence excerpt

F1Q27 TTWO Preview: Staying the Course

d or something deeper. PREV

NBA in-line against tough comps: Facing a tough 48% RCS growth comp, the F1Q27 guide of +HSD

% is ambitious, but supported by intra-quarter data. While console is a larger driver, Steam CCUs

peaked ~60% higher during the NBA playoffs than at release last Sept. Exhibit 1 - TTWO y/y IAP Mobile trends decline

in F1Q27, likely in-line with Street mobile RCS

expectations of -MSD% y/y decline.F1Q GTA RCS likely soft, but rising into GTA VI: First on RCS, the big summer GTA Online content

update was in July this year vs June in 2025, likely heavily impacting F1Q27 y/y comps. Like mobile, 30% TTWO IAP28%y/y% Growth vs. Sensor Tower24%Revs

17% 20% 23% 14% 13%the guide was "decline" but likely much steeper than the -MSD% of mobile given the impact of those

11% 9% 17% 10% 8%

12% 10% 10%semi-annual updates. Notably, Steam GTA Online CCUs doubled from the 1st week of June to the 8% 8% 9%

0%

3%

current week mid-July the update came out, also likely helped by pre-orders of GTA VI coming with -10% 0%

1 month of GTA+. Overall trends appear stable into GTA VI. -20% -14%

F4Q24A F1Q25A F2Q25A F3Q25A F4Q25A F1Q26A F2Q26A F3Q26A F4Q26A F1Q27E

.GTA VI update unlikely: All data points to a strong start for GTA VI pre-orders with 40M+ unit Sensor Tower IAP y/y TTWO Reported IAP y/y Source: Sensor Tower, Jefferies

expectations for FY27 intact. TTWO disclosing a pre-order number on the call is highly unlikely, as

would be updating the likely conservative FY27 guide. The timing and scope of GTA VI Online is the

largest unknown, and somewhat surprising is we haven't heard anything yet. It's too early to know

for sure, but pushing GTA VI Online to calendar 2027 would be a negative for LT player retention.