2Q26 Student Lending Prev: Focus Likely on PLUS/Vol Update and Credit Trends

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Student Lending Prev: Focus Likely on PLUS/Vol Update and Credit Trends

USA | Consumer Finance EquityJulyResearch17, 2026

KEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:2Q26 Student Lending Prev: Focus Likely on

TICKER RATING PRICE TARGETPLUS/Vol Update and Credit Trends

SLM BUY $35.00

For SLM, 2Q focus will be on credit trends / provision expense, update NAVI HOLD $9.00

on forward flow and origination trends, and opex trajectory ahead of PLUS

program. Loan sale economics, credit outlook, NIM and growing fee income

should drive commentary on 2H26. NAVI's key drivers are PEL origination

KEY CHANGES INCLUDE:

trends, credit, regulatory impacts, and Earnest growth. Mgmt / transition and

evidence of growing volumes, stable NIM and credit trends will be closely TICKER RATING PRICE TARGET

watched into the print. NAVI HOLD $9.00 ($10.00)

For SLM, we expect the investor focus to be on the credit trends, updates on parternships and

volume trends, and expense trajectory as the company prepares for PLUS program reform. We

estimate 2Q26 EPS of $0.47 versus the Street's $0.47. Our loan originations estimate of $3.46B

(+13% Y/Y) is in line with consensus. We estimate Q/Q NIM pressure to 5.04%, at the low end

of management's target range, a factor mostly tied to excess liquidity/cash build into 2H, with

improving NIM trends expected in 2H26. Non-interest income should grow modestly from emerging

forward-flow servicing fees and loan sale gains. We differ from the Street on Gain on Sale of $5.9M

v. Street's $21M, as we do not expect any spot sales other than the portion for KKR partnership,

especially given seasonality in 2Q (low volumes). Credit noise is expected to be a topic of discussion

for the quarter, as we recently increased our provision estimates to $89M on announced issues