UnitedHealth Group 3 Key Insights: UNH 2Q26

Research evidence excerpt

UnitedHealth Group 3 Key Insights: UNH 2Q26

USA | Managed Care

UnitedHealth Group EquityJulyResearch16, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGE3 Key Insights: UNH 2Q26

Headline MLR beat 180bp, but favorable net PPD (100bp) and commentary that RATING BUY

the cost variance is coming from UNH actions more than broadly moderating PRICE $423.38^

cost trend, muted the reaction. While the MLR beats almost certainly moderate PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $490.00 ($401.00) | +16%

in 2H (vs 1H), ~$20 of EPS in '26 and $25 in '27 (where buyside sits, we think) 52W HIGH-LOW $461.62 - $234.60

appears firmly in reach. UNH is overindexed to MA, which is trending more FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 100.3% | 2,882.50

favorably, and mgt's execution is gaining momentum. Maintain Buy, PT to $490. MARKET CAP $382.3B

TICKER UNH

MLR Perspective - Improvement More Tactical than Systemic. Headline MLR of 86.7% beat mgt's ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.

guide by 180bp. Net favorable PPD of $860M/100bp ($1.1B gross) was the main positive. The

OHealth PDR was also a small MLR helper (~10bp). Notably, a smaller amount of favorable PPD was

re-established in 2Q (~$250M) vs 1Q (~$500M) which signals underlying trend has improved and FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

is less volatile, but likely lowers the magnitude of favorable revision in future periods. As a general 2026 2027 2026 2027

comment, mgt doesn't see cost trend falling off a cliff. Instead, execution of key initiatives (e.g. REV <1% <1% -3% -6%

care mgt, portfolio actions) are driving the improvement. We also suspect favorability vs guidance EPS +5% +12% +13% +18%

reflects the original guidance being rather conservative (MA and OHealth analysis). Perhaps mgt