Sagax: Acquisitions Mask Weakening Fundamentals

Research evidence excerpt

Sagax: Acquisitions Mask Weakening Fundamentals

Sweden | Property & Real Estate

Sagax EquityJulyResearch16, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEAcquisitions Mask Weakening Fundamentals

Negative LFL rental growth, declining FFO/share and still-elevated future RATING UNDERPERFORM

vacancy suggest that underlying leasing fundamentals remain under pressure. PRICE SEK170.50^

With the shares still trading at a premium valuation relative to most European PRICE TARGET | % TO PT SEK145.00 (SEK150.00)

logistics peers (10% premium on P/FFO), we continue to see an unattractive | -15%

52W HIGH-LOW SEK226.80 - SEK143.70

risk-reward profile and maintain our Underperform reco. PT cut to SEK145.

FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 61.8% | 97.12

The investment engine remains active, with SEK2.2bn of acquisitions in H1 and a further SEK3.1bn MARKET CAP SEK57.7B | $6.0B

announced after quarter-end. Operationally, however, underlying momentum remains muted: LFL TICKER SAGAB SS

rental growth turned negative (-0.5% vs. 2.4% in 2025) and the vacancy continued to deteriorate ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

(+30bp vs Dec-25 to 4.5%). Taking into account terminated leases not yet vacated, adjusted vacancy

reaches 7.1%. In H1, vacancy rate in Sweden (20% of rents) rose from 5.4% to 7.3%, and from 4.1%

to 5.4% in Finland (30%), while it went down from 3.7% to 3.4% in France (22%). FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

2026 2027 2026 2027

5% EPS cut. In H1-26, EBITDA increased by only 1% after a 150bp deterioration in NOI margin.

REV NM +1% +1% +4%

PFPM ps declined 2.2% following a 26% increase in financial expenses, while FFO per share fell

EPS -5% -5% NA NA

5.5% due to an 83% increase in tax paid. Management raised its FY26 PFPM guidance to SEK4.6bn