Allstate Corp.: Updating Model for 2Q26 CATs

Research evidence excerpt

Allstate Corp.: Updating Model for 2Q26 CATs

USA | P&C Insurance/Insurtech

Allstate Corp. EquityJulyResearch16, 2026

ESTIMATE CHANGEUpdating Model for 2Q26 CATs

We update our model to reflect ALL's announced 2Q26 PIF CAT losses. RATING BUY

We increase our '26E EPS estimate by ~7% for better-than-expected CAT PRICE $239.48^

losses and leave our '27E/'28E estimates unchanged. Monthly PIF data was PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $282.00 | +18%

discontinued, and we note Cons 2Q26 Auto PIF est implies June MoM growth 52W HIGH-LOW $257.67 - $188.08

of 0.2% compared with JEF's 0% and PGR's 0.2%. Remain Buy using a 2x P/B FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 99.5% | 445.14

multiple (11x Q5-Q8E EPS). PT $282 (+18% ETR). MARKET CAP $61.6B

TICKER ALL

ALL reported June CAT losses of $563mn compared to implied JEF of $1,213mn and Cons $861mn. ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.

ALL's 2Q26 CAT losses of $1,722mn compares with prior JEF $2,372mn and Cons $2,020mn. We

note, ~11.5pts of CAT losses compare with the 3/5yr averages of 18pts/14pts. The delta between

ALL's reported CATs and JEF/Cons adds +39%/18% upside to prior 2Q26E EPS estimates and FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

+7%/3% to 2026E estimates. 2026 2027 2026 2027

REV NA NA -1% -2%

As previously announced, the company discontinued monthly PIF data in June. JEF/Cons 2Q26E

EPS +7% NA +4% -3%

Auto PIF estimates of 25,906k/25,949k implies sequential adds of 5k/48k (+0%/+0.2%) from May's

25,901k. This compares with PGR's June MoM growth of 0.2%. We note, while disclosing monthly

2026 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

PIF data ALL underperformed PGR's sequential growth every month, though the gap narrowed in

April/May. Assuming our 2Q26E 8% YoY (-3% QoQ) auto new app growth and PIF is correct implies EPS 10.65 7.11 6.18 8.15 32.10