Manpower 2Q26: Organic growth recovery

Research evidence excerpt

Manpower 2Q26: Organic growth recovery

Update

July 16, 2026 01:50 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MStaffers | Europe Remi Grenu

Equity Analyst

Manpower 2Q26: Organic Remi.Grenu@morganstanley.comAnnelies Vermeulen +44 20 7425-0552

Annelies.Vermeulen@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-4367

growth recovery Zachariah Al-Qaryooti

Zach.Al-Qaryooti@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2400

Key Takeaways

Business Services

Manpower (not covered) beat consensus EPS expectations by c3% in 2Q26; Europe

Industry View Attractive

stronger top line (+6% ccy vs 3.5% cons and 1-5% guide range).

GM% slightly below cons but EBITA margin in-line. Stronger momentum in US

and Northern Europe, while Southern Europe stable.

3Q26 EPS guidance midpoint is in-line with VA consensus; organic growth guide

is ahead, GM% slightly below but EBITA margin in-line.

On the call, management focussed on exit rate, business recovery, client behavior,

gross margin pressure and AI initiatives.

Positive read-across to RAND (reports 22nd Jul) and ADEN (6th Aug), with

acceleration of volume momentum and supportive 3Q26 outlook.

We show below the 2Q26 variance table, 3Q26 guidance vs. VA consensus and the

key takeaways from Manpower 2Q26 earnings call:

• Exit rate. In the US, they saw the strength building through the quarter.

France was very stable through 2Q26: it was flat over the quarter and

revenue trend moved in line with market date. Italy also experienced a stable

revenue trend this quarter with a slight strengthening in June. Japan was

stable as well over the last 3 months.

• Recovery. Manpower has moved from stabilization to recovery and they are

encouraged by progress in Talent Solutions and Perm and they expect these

trends to continue in 3Q26 as well. Perm is 15.3% of the group gross profit