TSMC (2330.TW): AI demand keeps accelerating; Upside surprise on further capex increase

Research evidence excerpt

TSMC (2330.TW): AI demand keeps accelerating; Upside surprise on further capex increase

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16 Jul 2026 09:16:42 ET │ 20 pages

TSMC (2330.TW)

AI demand keeps accelerating; Upside surprise on further capex

increase

CITI'S TAKE

TSMC delivered another strong quarter with 2Q26 revenue of US$40.2bn Buy

(+12% QoQ, +34% YoY) and guiding 3Q26 revenue to US$44.6–45.8bn,

implying another ~12% sequential increase. More importantly, Catalyst Watch: Upside, expires 03-AUG-26

management repeatedly emphasized that AI demand has become even Price (16 Jul 26 13:30) NT$2,470.00

stronger than previously expected. 2026 Capex is lifted to US$60–64bn as Target price NT$3,800.00AI demand is broadening beyond GPUs to include CPUs, custom ASICs and

networking silicon, reinforcing confidence in 2026 revenue growth of above Expected share price 53.8%

40% YoY. Importantly, management stressed that it evaluates CSP return

deployment schedules, power availability and data-center construction Expected dividend yield 2.0%

before expanding capacity, supporting confidence that current AI demand

represents real deployment rather than inventory build. Reiterate Buy. Expected total return 55.9%

Market Cap NT$64,052,954M

The lifted guidance and capex driven by higher demand and inflationary pricing US$2,005,352M

environment — Despite aggressively raising 2026 capex, management

acknowledged that supply will likely remain tight for years. TSMC highlighted that

AI-related demand spans CPUs, GPUs/XPUs, requiring continuous balancing of

wafer allocation across customers. TSMC reinforced that leading-edge capacity Price Performance

expansion remains entirely demand driven rather than competitively motivated. At