S&P Global Mobility LVP July Forecast - Upgrades to 2026 and 2027

Research evidence excerpt

S&P Global Mobility LVP July Forecast - Upgrades to 2026 and 2027

Global | Autos & Auto Parts EquityJulyResearch16, 2026

S&P Global Mobility LVP July Forecast -

Upgrades to 2026 and 2027

Upgrades to 2026 (+0.5pp to -2.1% y/y) and 2027 (-0.3pp to +0.7% y/y on

base effect with units +166k) with S&P still noting oil prices are below worst

case assumptions with many markets exhibiting more resilient demand.

China is still seeing demand-driven downgrades. Europe saw a mid-sized

upgrade (+1.0pp in 2026 to -1.5% y/y) on better than expected macro. South

Asia and Japan/Korea are the other main upgrades with NA up only slightly.

Global FY25 production has settled at 93.1m, +3.9% y/y.

Global FY26 production sees a -199k downgrade to 90.68m, -2.6% y/y (-0.2pp). The base

case continues to assume sustained high oil prices through 2027.

NA is upgraded +0.4pp to -1.3% y/y (+66k) on incoming production results (as opposed to

forward outlook).

China is -200k / -0.6pp to -4.6% y/y. Domestic demand continues to weaken while exports

continue to be key to supporting production.

Europe ex-Russia +159k / +1.0pp to -1.5% y/y. Upgrade mainly due to better than expected

macro. Near term upgrades focused on non-BEV volume backfill through H1. Chinese

export sales continue to be very strong, creating a divergence between demand results and

production.

FY27 is expected +0.7% y/y (-0.3pp / +165k) to 91.8m. NA is expected -0.3% y/y (+0.4pp /

+5k, so mostly base effect). China is expected +1.1% y/y (-0.1pp / -235k). Europe ex-Russia

is expected -0.5% y/y (-0.2pp / +121k) on BEV production in line with 2025-2027 average CO2

emission targets, a segment less impacted by Chinese competition.

Exhibit 1 - S&P Global Mobility regional production forecast - latest % y/y and changes vs last month's

estimates