Implications from TSMC results: Japan | Technology

Research evidence excerpt

Implications from TSMC results: Japan | Technology

Technology

Equity Research

July 16, 2026

Stock prices of Japanese SPE stocks have exhibited rising market confidence in medium-term

growth for the semiconductor market since June amid advances in AI demand from learning to

inference and beyond to agentic and physical applications. Comments by memory manufacturers

have shown heightened confidence in longer-term growth based on long-term contracts, and SPE-

related stock prices have risen too in this context. Daily changes, meanwhile, have risen due to

the combination of elevated levels and macro challenges, such as higher interest rate, Middle

East conditions, and economic recession concerns. Nevertheless, we expect continued rise in the

range of SPE stock prices as major semiconductor companies announce robust results following

the TSMC announcement. We think memory prices might be weaker than the market’s strong

expectations from the latter half of 2027. Even in this case, we forecast a continued low level in

capital intensity and sustained expansion of the SPE market. Despite large fluctuations in share

prices daily, considering balance between the current share price and market expectations, we see

relatively large upside for Advantest in 1Q results. We recommend Rorze and Horiba among small-

cap stocks.

Main anticipated beneficiaries of TSMC’s increase in capital investments are Tokyo Electron,

SCREEN, Lasertec, Advantest, Disco, and Shibaura Mechatronics.

2Q FY12/26 results: TSMC reported US$40.2bn in sales (+33.7% YoY, +12.0% QoQ), attaining the

high end of company guidance (US$39.0-40.2bn). The market outlook was US$39.3bn. Sales rose

significantly YoY in a 10th straight quarter.

Gross margin was 67.7% (+1.5ppt QoQ), beating guidance (65.5-67.5%).