Gas Relief Arrives, But Re-Rate Still Needs Proof: Staying Hold; F3Q Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Gas Relief Arrives, But Re-Rate Still Needs Proof: Staying Hold; F3Q Preview

NORTH AMERICA | Power & Utilities

UGI Corp EquityJulyResearch16, 2026

ESTIMATE CHANGEGas Relief Arrives, But Re-Rate Still Needs Proof:

RATING HOLDStaying Hold; F3Q Preview

PRICE $36.22^

Gas rate case settlement clears much of the earnings risk: positive but does

not fully clean PA overhang. $65mn settlement above our prior $41mn FY27E. PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $40.00 | +10%

Looking for signs of progress on AmeriGas business transformation into winter. 52W HIGH-LOW $41.34 - $31.62

Midstream upside less immediate as we see PA data center outlook muddled. FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 99.4% | 53.42

Lower FY26 EPS to $2.83, in line with guide/cons & establish F3Q EBIT $66mn. MARKET CAP $7.8B

Forecast 4.7% FY24-29 EPS CAGR, trailing 6% guidance midpoint and 5.9% TICKER UGI ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

Consensus. noted.

Gas settlement better than expected, but PA uncertainty not likely abating from here. The gas FY (Sep) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

settlement clears the most obvious PA left-tail risk and came in better than we and many investors 2026 2027 2026 2027

feared. Constructive step but the Governor's letter remains an overhang on the state broadly. UGI EPS -6% <-1% -4% NM

will not have a rate case until at least 2029 which provides insulation, but the multiple will be

DPS NA NA NM NM

depressed. Potential interest in PA consolidation a further area of investor concern. Shares screen

inexpensive on SOTP, though the discount likely persists until PA risk feels less structural. Watch AWK/

2026 ($) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

WTRG case and pivotally - the next rate case to be filed.

DPS 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 1.50

Lower FY26 EPS -6% on guide reset: out-years now reflect settlement timing.