Manufacturing Foot Traffic: June Trends Still Soft Outside of CAT

Research evidence excerpt

Manufacturing Foot Traffic: June Trends Still Soft Outside of CAT

USA | Industrials EquityJulyResearch16, 2026

Exhibit 1 - Production Facility Visits andManufacturing Foot Traffic: June Trends Still

Correlations

Correlation toSoft Outside of CAT Company Visits R3M Visits

Volume/Sales*

CARR 2.4% -4.2% 80%

CAT 25.3% 23.6% 74%Our manufacturing facility foot traffic dataset helps gain insight into production PCAR -18.3% -23.6% 75%

. DE 0.9% -1.9% 59%activity across our machinery universe and helps predict volume/sales trends Source: Placer, Company Data, Jefferies

through the quarter. June data gives early insight into 2Q which indicated steep *Represents R3M Visits Correlation to R3M Sales

mid-20% declines at PCAR, a MSD decline at CARR and LSD decline at DE for

the quarter. CAT remains the standout where foot traffic was up +DD for June

and the quarter.

What's Most Interesting? Foot traffic trends for June show CAT trending above expectations, while

PCAR/CARR/DE appear in-line or below. We continue to see DD foot traffic growth to CAT mfg

facilities, likely driven by strong power gen demand and CI trending positively. PCAR's DD decline in

traffic to their facilities does appear to be consistent with lower build expectations for 1H, though

we expect this to inflect in 2H, as order activity suggests stronger build rates in 3Q/4Q. Resi HVAC

declines have moderated, with recent industry volume growth in May (click HERE), with traffic

to CARR facilities inflecting to modest SD growth. DE activity grew moderately in June after two

months of consecutive declines in Apr/May.

Carrier (Ex 2 & Ex 3). This month's Local SSS monthly visits were +2.4% (-8% last month), as June

R3M data read -4.2%. Consensus estimates currently have 2Q Americas down -4%. The correlation