EU Pharma: Key catalysts over the next 6 months

Research evidence excerpt

EU Pharma: Key catalysts over the next 6 months

Idea

July 16, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MPharmaceuticals | Europe Thibault Boutherin

Equity Analyst

EU Pharma: Key catalysts over Thibault.Boutherin@morganstanley.comSarita Kapila +44 20 7425-9688

Sarita.Kapila@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1320

the next 6 months Adithya Venkat

Research Associate

Adithya.Venkat@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2216

We highlight catalysts in EU Pharma for the rest of the year. We

Pharmaceuticals

see several large binary catalysts in H2'26, particularly for Bayer Europe

(glyphosate litigation), Novartis (multiple pipeline readouts) and Industry View In-Line

AZN (AVANZAR and SERENA-4); with the greatest upside risk

for Bayer & AZN.

Key Takeaways

We review the key catalysts for EU pharma stocks over the next 6 months

through our structured data framework.

We see the largest catalysts for Bayer (glyphosate litigation), Novartis (Avidity

assets & remibrutinib) and AstraZeneca (AVANZAR and camizestrant in 1L BC).

We expect the greatest upside at Bayer (in the event that glyphosate litigation

moves closer to resolution) and see potential for large binary moves at Novartis

and AstraZeneca.

For Bayer, the fairness hearing / final approval hearing for the settlement

agreement scheduled for 19 August is the next key step in the glyphosate

litigation. Judge Boyer's responsibility is to decide whether the proposed settlement

agreement is "fair, reasonable, and adequate" based on the final approval motions

and the objections raised before the hearing. We see three scenarios: 1) final

approval is granted (settlement is deemed fair, the objections are overruled); 2)

approval is denied (would lead to either a renegotiation of the settlement or a