Game of Rails: 2Q26 Earnings Preview... Intermodal strength and freight cycle turn boost outlook, raising PTs

Research evidence excerpt

Game of Rails: 2Q26 Earnings Preview... Intermodal strength and freight cycle turn boost outlook, raising PTs

15 July 2026

Price Target Change

Airfreight & Surface Transportation

Game of Rails: 2Q26 Earnings Preview... Intermodal strength and

freight cycle turn boost outlook, raising PTs

In today’s note we update our rail estimates and price targets ahead of 2Q26 prints. David Vernon

+1 917 344 8333

david.vernon@bernsteinsg.com Carloads coming in higher than expected at U.S. rails; Intermodal volume growth

is pulling a lot of the weight. Comparing implied full quarter carloads (based on weekly

Justine Weiss company carload data) to consensus estimates, carloads trended a bit stronger than the

+1 917 344 8433 street expected earlier in the quarter (mid-April) at the U.S. rails / softer at Canadian rails justine.weiss@bernsteinsg.com

(Exhibit 2). Persistent tightness in the trucking market (evident in Exhibit 3’s elevated load-

Specialist Sales to-truck ratios) has been driving up truck rates in recent months. This is already having

positive effects on Intermodal volume growth (Exhibit 4) and has started to translate into

Steve Song Intermodal rate lift (Exhibit 5). Looking at 4WMA carloads, Intermodal / Merchandise have

+1 917 344 8401

steve.song@bernsteinsg.com been strong in 2Q, with Intermodal generally +HSD YoY and Merchandise +MSD YoY in

recent weeks; Coal has fallen off into MSD YoY declines (Exhibit 4).

Stock performance and estimate revisions have looked good across the rails, but

it’ll be important to keep an eye on mix. Relative to levels seen 3 months back, we’ve

seen share price gains and generally positive consensus EPS revisions have unfolded with

people finally feeling confident about a real turn in the truck market underway, rising YoY