Jun‘26 Qtr. Results: All-round Miss Led by Higher Loss Ratio

Research evidence excerpt

Jun‘26 Qtr. Results: All-round Miss Led by Higher Loss Ratio

e in motor OD and (4) higher health and fire losses. The motor remains elevated

TP provision was 11% of net earned premium; however, loss ratio increased by only c.200bps Motor CoR (%)

which may suggest reserve releases. We have increased our motor loss ratio estimates for Industry ICICIGI

FY27-29e by 300bps, as higher provisions will need to be made in new motor TP policies as 117.7% 128.5% 128.1% 128.0% 114.7% 125.0% 124.5% 123.7% 123.5% 110.6% 124.8%108.0% 123.8%well. We think this impact can be offset through either price hikes (regulated product, hence 107.6% 106.9% 106.7% 106.6% 121.9%111.8% 121.1%112.9% 121.0%113.8% 119.4%108.9% 118.2%106.3% 118.5%106.4% 125.6% 105.3% 105.2%

will need Government approval) or reserve releases.

1QFY23 1HFY23 9MFY23 FY23 1QFY24 1HFY24 9MFY24 FY24 1QFY25 1HFY25 9MFY25 FY25 1QFY26 1HFY26 9MFY26 FY26

Readthroughs for Go Digit: The Supreme Court judgment has implications for Go Digit as well, .Source: Company reports, Jefferies

noting Motor TP is 43% of its gross premiums. We think the impact for Go Digit could be lower,

noting its Incurred But Not Reported (IBNR) provisions relative to claims outstanding has been

consistently higher (see Exhibit 15).

Potential beneficiary of commission regulations: Jun'26 qtr. GDPI grew 7.5% y-y. Growth has

picked up across the months, with Jun'26 growing by 14% y-y vs 2% y-y growth in Apr'26.

Irrational competition in Fire, Motor and Group Health has been a key headwind for growth.

We think should the regulator cut commissions, it could be beneficial for ICICIGI, as smaller

players with higher commissions would be forced to reduce payouts.

Where do we go from here? Our FY27e IGAAP PAT falls 5-10% as we factor in higher motor loss