Svenska Handelsbanken: Still waiting for growth

Research evidence excerpt

Svenska Handelsbanken: Still waiting for growth

Sweden | Nordic Banks

Svenska Handelsbanken EquityJulyResearch16, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEStill waiting for growth

2Q results came in below expectations, with a 5% pre-provision profit miss RATING UNDERPERFORM

driven by weaker revenues, including a 2% NII miss. We continue to wait for PRICE SEK143.85^

growth to resume in their largest market, Sweden (75% of operating profit), PRICE TARGET | % TO PT SEK121.00 (SEK122.00)

which saw flat lending balances YoY. Outside Sweden, while there is some | -16%

52W HIGH-LOW SEK146.10 - SEK106.16

growth, profitability and returns remain weaker. We make marginal EPS

FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 66.9% | 63.46

changes, lower our price target to SEK 121, and maintain our Underperform

MARKET CAP SEK284.8B | $29.6B

on valuation grounds.

TICKER SHBA SS

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

Earnings estimate changes: We have made marginal changes to our earnings estimates noted.

across the forecast period, with lower NII offset by better fees and lower costs. We reduce our

price target to SEK 121 (from SEK 122) and maintain our Underperform rating. We forecast

an ROTE of c13% in 2028 and, with SHB trading on a 1.5x 2028E P/TNAV, continue to see the FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

shares as overvalued and note better value elsewhere in the sector. EU Banks trade at a 2028E 2026 2027 2026 2027

P/TNAV of 1.6x for an ROTE of c18%. On a P/E basis, SHB trades at 12x vs the sector at 9x REV NA NA NA NA

or a 30% premium. EPS -1% NM -1% -3%

Sweden - growth remains muted: Lending growth remains muted in SHB's largest segment, 2026 (SEK) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

Sweden, which accounts for 75% of operating profits, with the company lagging the market EPS -- -- -- -- 11.58