Real Estate Services 2Q26 Earnings Preview | North America: Revenue Growth Durability and Operating Leverage in Focus; Positive CBRE Into Print

Research evidence excerpt

Real Estate Services 2Q26 Earnings Preview | North America: Revenue Growth Durability and Operating Leverage in Focus; Positive CBRE Into Print

Idea

July 15, 2026 09:56 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMReal Estate Services 2Q26 Earnings Preview | North Ronald Kamdem, CFA

America Equity Analyst

Ronald.Kamdem@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-8319

Matthew Glickman

Research AssociateRevenue Growth Durability and Matthew.Glickman@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4272

Real Estate ServicesOperating Leverage in Focus; North America

Positive CBRE Into Print Industry View In-Line

Exhibit 1 : CRE Transaction Volumes

$1,000 CRE Transaction Volume ($bn)

$900

1Q 2Q 3Q 4QWe review key data points on transactions and leasing ahead of $800

$216bnearnings which are constructive. Key debate is if the durability of $700$600

revenue growth can change the narrative on potential AI impacts $500$400

$300

given the complexity and breadth of core services offering and a $200$100

supportive CRE fundamental backdrop. $0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 (May)

YTD

Key Takeaways Source: Real Capital Analytics, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Expect CBRE adj. EPS above cons and 26e guide raised above cons; expect CWK

adj. EPS above cons and 26e guide raised below cons Exhibit 2 : CRE Transaction Volumes

Real capital analytics data suggests US trx volume up +1% YoY 2QTD; expect $1,000.0 2017 Cumulative Transaction2018 Volume2019- All Property Types2020 ($bn) 2021

positive revision to +10-15% YoY in 2Q as more data collected vs +33% YoY in 1Q $900.0$800.0 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

$700.0

26e MSe trx volume est unch at $600bn (+10% YoY); expect tougher comps in $600.0

2H26 $500.0$400.0

$300.0 $216bn

U.S.