A Pause, Not a Peak: James Hardie Industries PLC | Asia Pacific

Research evidence excerpt

A Pause, Not a Peak: James Hardie Industries PLC | Asia Pacific

Idea

July 15, 2026 08:00 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MJames Hardie Industries PLC | Asia Pacific Joseph Michael, CFA

Equity Analyst

A Pause, Not a Peak Joseph.Michael@morganstanley.comJulianna C Sick +61 2 9770-9225

Julianna.Sick@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1304

Fiber cement held 23% share in 2025 despite affordability

pressure. While the near-term pace of conversion has slowed,

the ~10ppt runway to our terminal share view continues to

support our Overweight thesis.

US siding share update: The US Census Bureau released its annual Characteristics James Hardie Industries PLC (JHX.AX, JHX AU)

of New Housing data for 2025. Fiber cement share was unchanged at 23.0%, Australia Industrials | Australia

preserving the 1.2ppt gain achieved in 2024. While the data is category-level and Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View In-Line

lagging, we think it provides a useful test of the structural material-conversion Price target A$38.00

assumption underpinning our Siding & Trim forecasts. Up/downside to price target (%) 9

Shr price, close (Jul 13, 2026) A$35.02

Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 584

Three key takeaways for JHX: Mkt cap, curr (mn) US$14,217

EV, curr (mn) US$18,189

1) Flat share is modestly thesis-supportive in the current environment: Fiber Avg daily trading value (mn) A$91

cement held 23.0% share despite continued affordability pressure and a cost- Fiscal Year Ending 03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

conscious housing mix. Vinyl declined 1ppt to 26%, partly reversing its 3ppt increase EPS (US$)** 1.05 1.24 1.52 1.76

Prior EPS (US$)** - - - -

in 2024. We view the outcome as consolidation rather than evidence that fiber EPS (US$)§ 1.11 1.18 1.47 1.75

cement penetration has peaked.