BANB Pre-1H26 Commentary

Research evidence excerpt

BANB Pre-1H26 Commentary

ctation. This not only elevates execution risk during the capacity transition but

also increases dependence on Customer A and the magnitude of the potential revenue cliff

beyond FY29 when the contract is due for renewal. We continue to struggle to reconcile these

assumptions with our view of underlying market demand, which we do not believe is sufficient

to support both contract renewal and the Sisslerfeld underwriting.

Cagrisema newsflow remains a burden: We continue to view the CagriSema opportunity

as becoming increasingly constrained, both in the near and medium term. From a medium- .

term perspective, the discontinuation of the co-formulation, the front-end-loaded design of the

AMAZE study with accelerated dose escalation, and the stronger-than-expected performance

of Oral Wegovy suggest a reduced strategic emphasis on Cagrisema. Collectively, these

developments imply that CagriSema is likely to occupy a lower-priority role within NOVO's

portfolio, with consequently lower volume potential. Outside the US, the dual-chamber syringe

presentation also appears potentially less commercially compelling, which could further limit

adoption and weigh on peak sales expectations.

Nearer term, recent GXI commentary regarding customer-related delays, which we believe

are likely linked to CagriSema, alongside reports of NOVO seeking supplier cost concessions,

points to a less favourable demand and pricing environment. In our view, these developments

reduce the gross margin opportunity for Customer B and limit upside beyond the CHF100m Christopher Richardson, ACA * | Equity

minimum order commitment. Analyst

+44 (0)20 7029 8675 | chris.richardson@jefferies.com

James Vane-Tempest * | Equity Analyst

44 (0) 20 7029 8275 | jvane-tempest@jefferies.com