Discount to persist as leverage dominates the narrative

Research evidence excerpt

Discount to persist as leverage dominates the narrative

Sweden | Property & Real Estate

Balder EquityJulyResearch15, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEDiscount to persist as leverage dominates the

RATING HOLDnarrative

PRICE SEK52.06^

Underlying operational momentum remains modestly positive with LFL rental

SEK58.00 (SEK62.00) |

growth of 1.2% and recurring EPS down 12% after Norion deconsolidation. PRICE TARGET | % TO PT +11%

Values and NAV were broadly stable (+0.4% YTD). Elevated leverage, weak 52W HIGH-LOW SEK69.79 - SEK49.00

office occupancy and a soft Finnish residential market continue to limit the pace FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 57.0% | 117.12

of recovery in earnings. We continue to see limited ST catalysts for a re-rating MARKET CAP SEK61.7B | $6.4B

without material disposal plan or meaningful operational improvement. TICKER BALDB SS

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

Leverage remains the key debate. While Balder reiterated its ambition to gradually reduce net noted.

debt/EBITDA towards 11x (13.1x in H1-26), management clearly indicated that deleveraging will

be gradual and that opportunistic investments and buybacks remain part of the capital allocation FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

framework. However, we note that the S&P-adjusted D/D+E ratio stood at c.58% in H1-26, leaving 2026 2027 2026 2027

relatively limited headroom against the agency's 60% threshold. LTV ratio stands at 54.4% as per

REV NM NM +2% +3%

Jef definition, vs. 53.3% in 2025 while the ICR stands at 2.5x vs. 2.7x in 2025. Balance sheet flexibility

EPS -3% -2% NA NA

remains relatively tight and should continue to be monitored closely.

No large disposals planned. This naturally raises questions around future capital allocation and the 2026 (SEK) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY