Q2 should further de-risk the earnings recovery story

Research evidence excerpt

Q2 should further de-risk the earnings recovery story

Netherlands | Banks

ABN Amro EquityJulyResearch15, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEQ2 should further de-risk the earnings recovery

RATING BUYstory

PRICE €38.30^

We are confident on FY26 delivery, with replicating portfolio tailwinds now

flowing through reported NII (Dutch NII +8% YoY) while costs are tracking ahead PRICE TARGET | % TO PT €45.00 (€39.00) | +17%

of plan with further optionality via ICS-Worldline partnership. Credit quality is 52W HIGH-LOW €38.78 - €22.99

solid & excess capital is ~8% of mkt cap. Shares trading at 1.3x P/TBV for a FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 0.0% | 89.90

14% 2028e RoTE. MARKET CAP €36.0B | $41.2B

TICKER ABN NA

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

Dutch retail remains the driver. Following strong balance sheet momentum in Q1 (loans +6% YoY, noted.

deposits +7% YoY), we still see strong volume this quarter despite a softer macro backdrop. We

expect Dutch NII to grow +8% YoY, driven by volume, stable deposit costs (main savings rate

at 1.25%), and a supportive liability margin (45% of the RP reprices <1Y). Asset margins should FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

remain broadly flat, as lower margins on state-guaranteed loans are offset by volumes - c.20% 2026 2027 2026 2027

market share. Also, we like the economic return of these mortgages, as they come with a lower REV NA NA NA NA

RWA density. Seasonality will provide an additional boost for deposit volume in Q2. Fees should EPS NA NA NA NA

remain solid & RoE seen at 24% in 2Q.

Cost discipline in Dutch retail: A word on ICS. We view the recent ICS-Worldline agreement as a

clear positive for ABN. The outsourcing of core operations allows the bank to retain the associated Exhibit 1 - With a 92% C/I ratio, ICS accounted