Li Ning (2331.HK): 2Q retail sales in line;tentatively no cut to 2026E guidance

Research evidence excerpt

Li Ning (2331.HK): 2Q retail sales in line;tentatively no cut to 2026E guidance

Flash |

15 Jul 2026 09:14:36 ET │ 12 pages

Li Ning (2331.HK)

2Q retail sales in line; tentatively no cut to 2026E guidance

CITI'S TAKE

Buy Retail sales of core Li Ning brand (ex LN Young) declined by LSD YoY in 2Q,

in line with our expectations (see Citi’s 2Q preview note on July 1). Despite Short-Term View: Upside, expires 14-AUG-26

sequentially weakened retail sales in 2Q vs 1Q, mgmt sounded confident Price (15 Jul 26 16:10) HK$15.12

in 1H margins (esp GPM, due to optimized cost structure and lock-up of Target price HK$22.80

raw materials). Rather than a cut to 2026E guidance (which investors had Expected share price return 50.8%

expected pre-print), mgmt tentatively maintained its 2026E full-year Expected dividend yield 4.6%

guidance (i.e., HSD of topline growth YoY with HSD of NPM) before further Expected total return 55.4%

assessing 3Q operation. For 2H26E outlook, mgmt highlighted the

Market Cap HK$39,082M continuously weak sales in July and HoH mounting margin pressure (from

US$4,983M YoY deepened retail discount and YoY rise of A&Ps). However, on the

positive side, we expect Li Ning to be the biggest beneficiary if Nike China

adjusts its online strategy (see Citi’s Jun 29 note Three scenarios of Nike

China’s online strategy). Xiaopo Wei, CFAAC

+852-2501-2472

2H26E outlook — Per mgmt, its July retail sales so far were “weaker-than-expected xiaopo.wei@citi.com

without sequential improvement vs Jun”, due to unfavorable weather (including Vincent Young

floods and typhoons). Despite YoY deepened retail discount, mgmt expects its 1H26 +852-2501-2738

GPM to “be manageable”, thanks to its proactive raw material price lock-up and cost vincent.young@citi.com

structure optimization.