Evolution Mining: 4Q26 – Looking into FY27; Falling Production; Increasing Costs

Research evidence excerpt

Evolution Mining: 4Q26 – Looking into FY27; Falling Production; Increasing Costs

ted our

Adjusting on a like-for-like copper price, we see AISC increasing to $1,909-1,974/oz (JEFe model for 4QFY26 actuals. FY27 pre-

$1,732/oz on our FY27 Cu deck of US$6.35/lb Cu, versus the US$5.54/lb FY25 guidance). guidance resulted in changes to capex timing

and gold produced at Ernest Henry and

Ernest Henry & Cowal declines. Ernest Henry hoisting will run ~10% below capacity for

Cowal.

development catch-up post the weather event at ~5.8Mt UG ore mined through FY27, implying

gold production of ~61koz (vs VAe: 67koz). Cowal production is also expected to decline,

however acceleration of the OPC E46 and UG upside from the second portal limit this to Figure 1 - FY27 AISC Waterfall

<10% YoY, and better than JEFe. We model gold production of 283koz through FY27 (vs VAe:

275koz), still representing a 5% YoY decrease relative to FY26 production. We note that the

initial OPC tonnes are mostly oxide-cap, likely requiring blending to limit impacts to recovery.

Cowal and Ernest Henry for ~64% of JEFe asset-NPV.

Capital allocation and portfolio. Closing cash of $1,347m was broadly unchanged QoQ

as $374m of cash flow funded the $399m dividend. Liquidity remains ~$1.9b, including

the $525m undrawn facility to CY28, with EVN fully unhedged and no debt maturities until .Source: Company Reports, Jefferies

FY29. BS capacity supports sustaining investment and early-stage post-FY30 growth studies,

albeit diluting shareholder returns without associated ROI metrics for committed capital. The Figure 2 - FY26-27 Production Delta Bridge

dividend policy and potential for buybacks will be addressed with the FY26 result in August, we

model FY26 final DPS of 19c / -10% VAe; and FY27 DPS 55c / +31% vs VAe.