The Daily Canuck 15.07.2026

Research evidence excerpt

The Daily Canuck 15.07.2026

Canada | Financials EquityJulyResearch15, 2026

Figure 1 - BoC Overnight RateThe Daily Canuck 15.07.2026

6.0%

With the Bank of Canada’s decision today, the policy rate is expected to 5.0%4.0%

3.0%remain unchanged as policymakers balance volatile oil prices and geopolitical

uncertainty against a gradually stabilizing economy. While energy costs are 2.0%1.0%

0.0%keeping headline inflation elevated, core inflation remains close to target, . Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-20 Jan-23 Jan-26

reinforcing a cautious, wait-and-see approach. Source: FactSet, Jefferies

What you need to know:

The Bank of Canada is expected to hold its policy rate at 2.25% as it weighs uncertain oil prices•

against a stabilizing economy. Rising energy costs are keeping headline inflation elevated at

3.2%, but core inflation remains near target. Economic data shows mixed signals, with prior

contractions offset by recent job growth and improving labour conditions. Economists see

limited chance of near-term rate changes, with most expecting steady rates through 2026, as

policymakers wait for clearer direction on inflation and growth.

The Bank of Canada will issue its interest rate decision on today, which is widely expected to•

remain unchanged. Meanwhile, CMHC will release Housing Starts data tomorrow.

Headlines

Canada regulator cited Anthropic's Claude Mythos in warning to banks on cyber risks, email

shows (Reuters) Yesterday, Reuters reported that Canada’s OSFI warned banks that advanced AI

models like Anthropic’s Claude Mythos could heighten cyber risks by reducing the time to detect

and respond to vulnerabilities. The regulator urged institutions to strengthen risk identification and

mitigation practices and later issued broader public AI guidance.