China Retail Sales – Jun 2026: Momentum Remains Uneven

Research evidence excerpt

China Retail Sales – Jun 2026: Momentum Remains Uneven

Idea

July 15, 2026 09:16 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MChina/Hong Kong Consumer | Asia Pacific Lillian Lou

Equity Analyst

China Retail Sales – Jun 2026: Lillian.Lou@morganstanley.comDustin Wei +852 2848-6502

Dustin.Wei@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7823

Momentum Remains Uneven Hildy Ling

Hildy.Ling@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7834

China retail sales rose 1.0% YoY in June (3.4% CAGR vs. 2019),

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

above -0.1% consensus and -0.6% in May 26. Growth improved, Terence Cheng

partly helped by the Dragon Boat Festival calendar shift and EquityTerence.Cheng@morganstanley.comAnalyst +886 2 2730-2873

some base effects. For July, summer holiday and weather Jenny Ting

disruptions remain key factors to watch. ResearchJenny.Ting@morganstanley.comAssociate +886 2 2730-2995

YoY trend by category (reported YoY, with rebasing among categories): Retail Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Jenny Yusales of goods recovered to +0.9% yoy in June vs. -0.7% in May, with restaurants

Research Associate

improved to 1.2% from 0.6% in May, partly helped by the calendar shift of the Jenny.Yu1@morganstanley.com +852 3963-1925

Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Online retail sales growth moderated to 2.0% yoy Carlos Liu, CFA

(3.4% in May), partly as the earlier start of the 618 shopping festival pulled forward Research Associate

Carlos.Liu@morganstanley.com +852 2848-5206

some demand into May.

• Among all categories, cosmetics stood out, with growth accelerating sharply

to +12.6% yoy (+2.5% in May), helped by government subsidy effects and the

618 shopping festival campaign. Alcohol & Tobacco also recorded strong

growth of 12.1% yoy, versus 4.8% in May, given an easier base with more China/Hong Kong Consumer