US Biopharma: 2Q26 Earnings Preview: Seasonal strength across the board

Research evidence excerpt

US Biopharma: 2Q26 Earnings Preview: Seasonal strength across the board

Key Takeaways

Investor interest focused on AI, BD, and 2H catalysts, though 2Q results still set the tone nonetheless

- 2Q updates need to validate the commercial setup into 2H26, while AI keeps healthcare in the broader investor minds

– Earnings season should be less about macro and more about whether launch execution, volume growth, access, and patient starts are tracking

well enough to support 2H momentum after a choppier 1H tape

– Investors are increasingly dipping their toes into healthcare + AI as a less volatile, longer-duration way to play AI beyond the crowded tech trade

– We expect AI to stay topical across regulatory automation, manufacturing efficiency, commercial targeting, and R&D / SG&A leverage

- Volume, access, and BD drive the company-by-company debates

– Broad Medicare access to GLP-1s went live 7/1 and it’s still too early to ascertain a momentum pickup, though 2Q uptake of Lilly and Novo’s oral

GLP-1s will be used as a rough proxy by the Street

– Capital deployment stays focal across obesity, I&I, neuroscience, oncology, rare disease, and specialty markets where large-cap infrastructure can

add value; AbbVie’s Apogee and Vertex’s Crinetics deals reinforce large-cap appetite for differentiated, longer-duration growth assets

– For this quarter, we’d highlight above consensus views on non-GAAP EPS for Gilead (+$0.03/sh); note that our views on Lilly (-$1.05/sh vs. cons)

include IPR&D, which has not been fully factored into consensus (we’d be +$0.93/sh otherwise)

– Major events to watch in 2026

– Broad Medicare access for GLP-1s went live on 7/1, making a key 2H26 question on when the expected volume inflection materializes