Energy Market Letter: Volume X

Research evidence excerpt

Energy Market Letter: Volume X

S$/tn)

Normalization of supply chains is likely to take time, likely supporting elevated margins over 900750

1HFY27. 600450

US introduces bill to raise tariffs on nations importing Russian crude: US Senate has 1500

introduced a bipartisan bill on Russian sanctions proposing tariffs of up to 100% on major 1-Jan-26 16-Jan-26 31-Jan-26 15-Feb-26 2-Mar-26 17-Mar-26 1-Apr-26 16-Apr-26 1-May-26 16-May-26 31-May-26 15-Jun-26 30-Jun-26 15-Jul-26

importers of Russian crude including China and India. .Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies

Russian crude's discount to Brent increased w/w: Russian Urals discount to Brent increased

to US$ 22/bbl from US$ 20/bbl last week (Ex 14).

Dubai crude discount to Brent increases w/w: Dubai crude's discount to Brent increased 14%

w/w to US$ 8/bbl.

Marketing margins softened w/w: OMCs are making a profit of Rs 8/lt on petrol but a loss of

Rs 5/lt on diesel based on 15-day average pricing (Ex 16). Very strong diesel refining spreads

of US$ 70/bbl is resulting in marketing losses currently.

Petrochemical margins correcting: Two of the largest petrochemical facilities in Iran along

with two of the largest facilities in Saudi Arabia have taken damages. Naphtha exports to North-

East Asia from the Middle East remain impacted. Average petchem margins (PE/PP/PET) are

currently up 51% vs February-end (Ex 17), aiding Reliance's O2C profitability.

LNG price increased w/w: Spot LNG prices prevail at US$ 17/mmbtu, +3% w/w. Domestic

affordability is stretched at current prices.

LNG infrastructure damages likely to keep prices elevated in 2026: Key LNG infrastructure

damages include 12.8mmtpa at Ras Laffan Qatar and 28mmtpa of natural gas production

at South Pars Iran. Reports suggest Qatar LNG restart of 65mmtpa needs ~2 months, with