Revising Earnings Forecasts: Nucor-Yamato JV Driving Profit Growth

Research evidence excerpt

Revising Earnings Forecasts: Nucor-Yamato JV Driving Profit Growth

its, supported by robust data center-related demand and improving structural steel

market fundamentals. NYS delivered a sharp earnings recovery in Nucor’s Q1 quarter, with Chart 1 - Nucor's Structural Steel Volume trend

earnings attributable to non-controlling interests rising 81% YoY and 182% QoQ, driven by a (thou. tons)

roughly 20% YoY improvement in steel spreads and double-digit shipment growth in structural 800700 40%30%

products. Nucor’s commentary also remains constructive, guiding for further earnings growth 600500 20%10%

in 2Q26 with its Steel Mills segment, which includes structural steel products, expected to 400300 0%-10%

post the largest increase on higher average selling prices and stable volumes. While Yamato’s 200100 -20%-30%

company plan remains conservative for 2H due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and the US 0 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q -40%

midterm elections, we believe strong demand from data centers, manufacturing investment CY2021 NucorCY2022Structural SteelCY2023Volume (thou.CY2024tons) CY2025YoY CY2026

and infrastructure projects should continue to support favorable volume and pricing conditions .Source: Company data, Jefferies

for NYS.

Chart 2 - Nucor-Yamato: Nucor's Earnings

Non-US steel S/D remain mixed. Outside the US, regional trends remain mixed but generally attributable to non-controlling interests ($mn)

supportive. Japan is expected to post lower sales and profits YoY due to temporary production 180160 250%200%

150%

120stoppages related to mill upgrades during May-June. Thailand should deliver YoY earnings 140

80 50%growth, benefiting from anti-dumping measures against Chinese imports introduced in late 100%

0%