2026 Grape Crush the Smallest in 25 Years

Research evidence excerpt

2026 Grape Crush the Smallest in 25 Years

Australia | Food & Beverages

Treasury Wine Estates EquityJulyResearch15, 2026

FLASH NOTE2026 Grape Crush the Smallest in 25 Years

V26 was very small due to both seasonal factors & deliberate response RATING HOLD

to low global demand. The contraction in volume crushed was broad- PRICE AUD4.67^

based, across all price points. Despite significant reduction in supply, prices PRICE TARGET | % TO PT AUD5.00 | +7%

generally contracted in both commercial & luxury regions. While helpful for 52W HIGH-LOW AUD8.21 - AUD3.34

TWE's COGS, it reflects continued weakness in global wine demand. FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 89.2% | 12.51

MARKET CAP AUD3.8B | $2.6B

2026 Grape Crush down 19% YoY to the lowest level since 2000 - Wine Australia has released TICKER TWE AU

the 2026 National Vintage Report. The Australian wine grape crush is expected to be 1.27m ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

tonnes; below the 10-year average of 1.6m tonnes for the fourth consecutive year. The below-

average crush was a result of both seasonal pressures (including flooding) and deliberate

decisions by growers & winemakers to reduce volume in response to lower global demand.

Volume declined consistently across all regions, both premium and commercial. Fig 1. Figure 2 - Premium grape pricing ($/tonne)

Price dispersion detail points to declines everywhere - In recent years, crush at higher price 1,750

points has held up better than lower price points, reflecting end consumer demand patterns. 1,500

However, in 2026, volumes were lower at all price points. Higher priced white grapes declined 1,250

YoY in 2026, but remain at higher levels than in prior years, reflecting shifting consumer 1,000

preferences away from full bodied red wines (Figs 4-5). 750