JLL 2Q26 Retail, Industrial & Office Forecasts

Research evidence excerpt

JLL 2Q26 Retail, Industrial & Office Forecasts

Australia | Property & Real Estate EquityJulyResearch15, 2026

JLL today released updated forecasts across Australian Office, Retail &

Industrial markets.

RETAIL: 3yr forecast rental growth revisions ranged from -0.3% (Melb Regional & Sub-

Regional) to +0.2% (Adelaide Regional). 2026 & 2027 supply forecasts were upgraded by 13%

& 6% respectively as 2028 completions were brought forward. Total transaction volumes rose

~53% in 2Q26 vs. 1Q26, but were ~16% lower than 2Q25.

OFFICE: prime net effective rental growth expectations were downgraded again but remain

strong at ~4-7% in key markets. Incentives broadly flat (~32% Syd & 48% Melb), while Melb

CBD vacancy rose 80bps to 20.5% & Brisbane fell 90bps to 10.6%. FY28 vacancy forecasts

increased across all capital cities (+80bps avg) except Brisbane, where they improved 210bps

to 7.5%.

INDUSTRIAL: Rental growth expectations were downgraded across most markets by 0.2% to

0.5%. Melb's West is now forecast to experience the strongest growth over the next 3 years.

Retail:

Regional gross rents – forecast rental growth revisions were mixed in 2Q26 (vs. 1Q26),•

ranging from -0.3% in Melb to +0.2% in Adelaide. 3-yr rental growth CAGRs now range

between 2.4% & 2.7%.

Sub-regional gross rents – forecast rental growth expectations were tempered in 2Q26•

(vs. 1Q26) by -0.3% in Melb. 3-yr rental CAGRs now range between 2.0% & 2.4%.

Neighbourhood gross rents – forecast rental growth expectations were tempered in•

2Q26 (vs. 1Q26) by -0.2% in Melb. 3-yr rental CAGRs now range between 2.5% & 2.8%.

Supply - 2026 supply forecasts were upgraded in 2Q26 (+13% vs. 1Q26) while 3-yr total•

supply expectations were upgraded by +0.7% as completion timelines were brought

forward to FY26-27.