Jefferies Consumer Health Index: Data Degradation, But Employment Rules

Research evidence excerpt

Jefferies Consumer Health Index: Data Degradation, But Employment Rules

USA | Thematic Research EquityJulyResearch15, 2026

Jefferies Consumer Health Index: Data We use household net worth, credit card use,

employment vs. participation, real wageDegradation, But Employment Rules growth, rel. change in Energy CPI, and core

Our Consumer Health Index (CHI) slid 1pt to 34 in May as a majority of the retail sales to drive our differentiated look at

consumer health and ability to spend.

underlying data we track continued to soften. Most notably (and unsurprisingly)

the relative cost of energy and compression in real wage gains produced Despite Incremental Steps Toward Conflict

Resolution, Consumer Indicators Continue to

the biggest M/M drags. Strength in core retail sales and buoyant securities Weaken

prices provided a modest offset. The current CHI level coincides with middling 10090 May 1999

performance and multiple compression for discretionary shares. 8070 Nov 2020

60 April 2025

50 Sept 2006

Our CHI continues to weaken, falling 1pt to 34 in May, as the fallout from the conflict in the Middle 40

30 April 2023East weighed on the consumer data we follow. Although there have been some encouraging signs

Oct 2012that point toward resolution, the May data showcased some of the very worst of the impacts on 2010

US consumers - particularly via energy markets. The relative cost of energy rose to its highest 0

level since '22 and the fallout from the first phases of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Similarly, our .Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies

real wage growth proxy sank to just +14bps, its lowest level since the middle of '21. These two Momentum's Rapid Decline Could Lead to a

Bottom Formingreadings would have accounted for a -2pt change to our index alone.