Updating Estimates For FX And As The Staffing Environment Remains Sluggish

Research evidence excerpt

Updating Estimates For FX And As The Staffing Environment Remains Sluggish

USA | Employment Services

ManpowerGroup Inc. EquityJulyResearch15, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEUpdating Estimates For FX And As The Staffing

RATING HOLDEnvironment Remains Sluggish

PRICE $39.18^

We're out updating our estimates for FX, and what we believe remain continued

levels of stabilization. Specifically, Indeed US job postings remain down MSD PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $37.00 ($34.00) | -6%

% in June and for the qtr, however, we've seen some evidence of a recovery in 52W HIGH-LOW $47.34 - $25.15

recruiter hiring in the US. All in, we remain on the sidelines given where we are FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 97.0% | 47.04

in the cycle but like the company's exposure to Europe, to blue-collar staffing, MARKET CAP $1.8B

and AI investments. Reiterate Hold. TICKER MAN ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Updating Estimates. We're updating estimates for FX and our view that the industry's return to

normalcy remains extended. Specifically, our 2Q trends are largely unchanged though our 2H

Cal CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

estimates are now more conservative than originally expected. For 2Q26, we anticipate revenue

2026 2027 2026 2027

to run $4.707bn (previously $4.722bn) which is largely driven by FX. Our estimates imply LSD%

growth in the US and HSD% growth in the Americas which aligns with guide (+6-10% YoY) and our REV <-1% <-1% NM +1%

scrapes which have shown an increase in recruiters for MAN US (here). On the margin front, we EPS -9% -14% -1% -2%

estimate gross margin to run 16.2% (-70bps YoY), the midpoint of guide, as we think the industry

pricing remains rational though we note this could prove aggressive. Similarly, we assume operating 2026 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 Cal