PJM Auction Results: Continued Pricing at the Cap

Research evidence excerpt

PJM Auction Results: Continued Pricing at the Cap

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July 15, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMDiversified Utilities / IPPs | North America David Arcaro, CFA

Equity Analyst

PJM Auction Results: Continued David.Arcaro@morganstanley.comAlexandre Zimmermann +1 212 761-1817

Research Associate

Alexandre.Zimmermann@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3617

Pricing at the Cap Amanda Huang

Amanda.Huang@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4197

PJM auction results cleared at the ceiling price of $325/MW-day, Zhizhong Dong

as widely expected by investors. Overall, we see this as ResearchJonathan.Dong@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-5632

generally constructive for the IPPs and indicates a very tight Jeremy Herring

market, but there are no meaningful changes to financial ResearchJeremy.Herring@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-4182

estimates vs. the prior auction.

Diversified Utilities / IPPs

North America

Key Takeaways Industry View Attractive

All PJM zones priced at the ceiling of $325/MW-d in the 2028/29 BRA

Prices would have cleared at $554.72/MW-d without an imposed cap, +5% vs. the

simulated cleared price with no cap in the 2027/28 BRA

Total capacity cleared is 6,831MW short of the reliability requirement, up from

6,500MW in the prior auction

Financial impacts are nominal vs. the prior auction (less than 3% decrease to

consensus 2028 EPS/EBITDA)

PJM capacity auction continues to signal a very tight market

Results from PJM's 2028/29 Base Residual Auction (BRA) were released

yesterday after the close and prices cleared at the ceiling of $325/MW-day (down

from the $333.44/MW-day ceiling price in the prior auction). Without the cap, PJM

estimates the clearing price would have been $554.72/MW-day, +5% vs. the