EM FI/FX Strategy: Latam: Three things to watch in the coming week

Research evidence excerpt

EM FI/FX Strategy: Latam: Three things to watch in the coming week

Global Research

13 July 2026ab

EM FI/FX Strategy Emerging Markets

Latin AmericaLatam: Three things to watch in the coming

week Roque Montero

Strategist

roque.montero@ubs.com

+1-203-719 2112

Brazil: Tariff decision and electoral calendar take center stage Manik Narain

Markets will watch the July 15 deadline for the U.S. decision on the proposed 25% tariff Strategist

on Brazilian imports over alleged unfair trade practices under Section 301. While several manik.narain@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 3635

categories of exports may be exempted and broader macro risks appear contained to us,

the issue has become increasingly intertwined with the October election campaign, with Rafael De La Fuente

Senator Bolsonaro traveling to Washington last week to argue against the measure and Economist

advocate for a delay until after the election. In this context, the electoral race is rafael.delafuente@ubs.com

+1-203-719 7127

approaching its first key milestone, with party conventions scheduled between July 20

and August 15, when candidates are expected to be formally nominated. While Andrea Casaverde

President Lula and Senator Bolsonaro are widely expected to secure their parties' Economist

nominations, any change to the candidate slate would need to materialize during this andrea.casaverde@ubs.com

+1-203-713-2515

window. On the data front, May activity data are due this week, with our economists

expecting retail sales and economic activity to increase 1.0% y/y and 0.2% y/y,

respectively. Taken together, upcoming releases should continue to point to a gradual

moderation in growth. While valuations continue to justify exposure to local rates, the

economy has been more resilient than expected and oil- and El Niño-related inflation