European Specialty Pharmaceuticals: Reading the Script - 2Q26 Prescription Trends

Research evidence excerpt

European Specialty Pharmaceuticals: Reading the Script - 2Q26 Prescription Trends

Global Research

13 July 2026ab

European Specialty Pharmaceuticals Equities

Europe including UKReading the Script - 2Q26 Prescription Trends

Healthcare

Matthew Weston, PhD

New quarterly product Analyst

In this quarterly product we aim to use ongoing weekly US prescription trends to inform matthew.weston@ubs.com

upcoming quarterly product revenue for key drugs in our EU Specialty Pharma coverage +44-20-7567 4055

universe. We compare UBS estimates with VA consensus forecasts for the upcoming Xian Deng, PhD, CFA

quarter to understand how demand is tracking relative to expectations. Analyst

xian.deng@ubs.com

Focus on EU Specialty Pharma +44-20-7901 6285

This report covers key drugs for Bayer, Galderma, Ipsen, Lundbeck, and Merck KGaA. Alek Ebbeling

UCB's 6-monthly reporting makes it challenging to use this approach, but we include it Associate Analyst

for completeness. alek.ebbeling@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 3764

Gross-to-net/Rebate assumptions are key Colin White, PhD

AnalystThe link between prescription trends and product revenue is always muddied by changes

colin.white@ubs.com

in gross-to-net PBM rebates, channel mix and wholesaler stocking. We aim to address +44-20-7567 8657

this by reviewing quarterly gross-to-net trends and aiming to predict where rebates will

go for the upcoming quarter. We recognise that this can involve a lot of uncertainty, but Dominic Lunn, CFA

Analyst

we set out our GTN assumptions for each drug.

dominic.lunn@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 3621

SPOTLIGHT:

Nusrat Hossain

Galderma - Nemluvio outperformance to offset aesthetics destocking in 2Q. We Associate Analyst

model strong continuing demand for US Nemluvio with 2Q sales c.5% ahead of nusrat.hossain@ubs.com

consensus.