Novartis 2Q26 Results Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Novartis 2Q26 Results Preview

our detailed expectations in

our recent 3Q26 Catalyst Preview. We expect a lot of investor attention on Matthew Weston, PhD

management confidence into the events and the relative timings of potential Analyst

readouts. We also note P2 data from TREM2 antibody VHB937 in ALS as a 2H26 matthew.weston@ubs.com

catalyst that is not on investors' radar but has high-risk multi-$bn peak sale +44-20-7567 4055

potential. Colin White, PhD

Analyst

FY26 guidance. We do not see significant scope for raising FY26 guidance with colin.white@ubs.com

current UBS expectations in-line with the current management targets for sales +44-20-7567 8657

and Core EPS growth. Investors have been surprised at the implied incremental

Xian Deng, PhD, CFA

operating costs from recent acquisitions so there may be scope for modest

upgrades at the EBIT level if cost moderation is achievable more quickly. This is not xian.deng@ubs.com

our base case. +44-20-7901 6285

What’s priced in

Our Neutral rating on Novartis is based on its material patent expiry risk, with c.$25bn

peak sales potential at risk from 2029-2031E. While 2H26 catalysts have the potential to

derisk >$10bn blue-sky peak sales potential, this would still leave a significant gap to

address. Moreover, Novartis' premium valuation versus peers implies that investors are

already assuming positive catalysts outcomes where UBS estimates are more normal in

Highlights (US$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 46,660 51,722 56,674 58,055 61,041 65,203 68,741 70,271

EBIT (UBS) 16,372 19,494 21,889 21,674 23,454 25,568 27,940 28,622

Net earnings (UBS) 12,833 14,786 17,188 15,884 17,234 19,050 21,164 21,867

EPS (UBS, diluted) (US$) 6.13 7.27 8.79 8.33 9.20 10.38 11.75 12.37