European Freight Transport: UBS Evidence Lab inside: 2Q26‘s freight forwarding volumes/prices

Research evidence excerpt

European Freight Transport: UBS Evidence Lab inside: 2Q26‘s freight forwarding volumes/prices

Powered by Lab Global13 JulyResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

European Freight Transport Equities

Europe including UKUBS Evidence Lab inside: 2Q26’s freight

forwarding volumes/prices Industrial Transportation

Sebastian Vogel, CFA

Analyst

sebastian.vogel@ubs.com

Iran conflict continues to leave its dent in global freight forwarding market +41-44 239 90 45

Overall, 2Q26 saw an initial continuation of the previous status quo. Hence, we note an Cristian Nedelcu, CFA

uneven combination of volume growth with sea being rather range bound, while air is Analyst

facing continued demand tailwinds. However, with some front-loading in sea and cristian.nedelcu@ubs.com

carriers' capacity discipline (slow steaming, blank sailings), sea rates were eventually up +44-20-7568 4375

meaningfully in the quarter, thus joining the continued elevated air freight rates. We also

see rates for both transport modes being impacted by, on average, higher fuel costs as

well. Considering this continued volatile environment, we recommend a selective

approach among our covered European freight forwarders.

Sea freight with limited volume growth, but material rate movements

In sea freight forwarding, 2Q26, saw no clean demand recovery, but a market with

fragile underlying container demand that met artificial tightness from carrier capacity

discipline. Hence, container ships entering ports across the globe were essentially flat y/y,

as also suggested by latest UBS Evidence Lab data (> Access Dataset). Moreover slow

steaming, Red Sea / Middle East routing risk, port congestion and front-loading ahead of

tariffs / bunker adjustments also impacted freight forwarders during 2Q26. As a result,