Barry Callebaut: Good execution but the standard chocolate segment faces challenges

Research evidence excerpt

Barry Callebaut: Good execution but the standard chocolate segment faces challenges

or illustration: One of Barry's largest customers, Hershey, seems to be losing

08/27E 54.18 54.32 0 54.31

market share in the US. According to Nielsen, Hershey's revenue market share in the

08/28E 62.76 62.45 -0 63.31

US is down some 160bp YTD ending 13 June, while premium players such as Lindt

gained some 40bp over the same period. Barry also stated it has recently observed Joern Iffert, CFA

reduced snacking by GLP1 consumers (which might impact standard segments). Analyst

joern.iffert@ubs.com

View on consensus and investor sentiment +41-44-239 88 00

We think consensus's FY 27E core net income of CHF300-310m (UBSe CHF299m) Marti Queral Ferre, CFA

compared to that implied by the company guidance in FY 26E of cCHF210-225m is at Analyst

marti.queral-ferre@ubs.com

the higher end of potential outcomes. Investors should not overestimate net interest

+41-44-236 9246

benefits as it is mostly a pass through in EBIT (UBSe net benefits of lower interest costs

cCHF30-40m). However, lower one-off supply chain costs (on normalised cocoa bean

prices and service levels) and improved profitability in gourmet (favourable hedging

rolling over) should more than offset a lower combined ratio contribution. We observe a

mixed investor sentiment as Barry does not screen inexpensively on the underlying

EFCF yield of c5% and the standard chocolate segment might face growth challenges.

Contrastingly, execution capabilities are viewed as encouraging (we share this view).

Valuation: DCF-based PT

The stock trades on FY 27E c20x PE (broadly in line with Swiss small and midcaps).

Neutral rating.

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