Iron Ore & Coal: Jun-H Dividends - Who is set to surprise?

Research evidence excerpt

Iron Ore & Coal: Jun-H Dividends - Who is set to surprise?

weighted to the final. Looking at the last eight reporting periods, RIO typically pays

out 50% of earnings at the interim; the final dividend is typically sufficient to get

the full year pay-out ratio up to 70-80%, though this has ranged from 60% to

160%. RIO differentiates between ordinary and special dividends, with the

ordinary being 50% of earnings at the interim and 60% of full-year earnings at

the final, with any excess classified as special.

50% payout expected: We forecast a 1H26 dividend of US209cps, or US$3.4bn

(50% payout ratio for 1H26 as seen over the last 5yrs); we assume no special

dividend is announced as RIO's capex is expected to remain elevated at "up to US

$11bn" in 2026/27 (with spend from OT/ Simandou to be replaced with lithium).

Net debt remains elevated at ~US$15bn following the Arcadium acquisition in

2025; mgmt is targeting US$5-10bn cash proceeds from disposals/optimisation of

the asset base (note); we expect this to be used initially to lower net debt with

additional returns to shareholders less likely in our opinion when net debt is >

$10bn. Our forecast for 1H26 EPS and DPS are broadly in line (+/-1%) with Visible

Alpha consensus.

Figure 4: Rio Tinto – EPS, DPS and pay-out ratio

Rio Tinto – EP S, DPS and p ay-out ratio

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Anglo American

Anglo American's policy is to pay a base dividend of 40% of underlying earnings

each half year. It has maintained the 40% payout since the dividend was restarted

with 1H17 results, only topping up returns to shareholders in Jul-21 with a US$1bn

special dividend ($0.80/sh) and a US$1bn buyback, and in Feb-22 with a $0.50/sh

special dividend. We note both these times Anglo's net debt was around or below

US$4bn.