Global Oil and Gas: Hormuz tracker: days 133-135

Research evidence excerpt

Global Oil and Gas: Hormuz tracker: days 133-135

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Global Oil and Gas Equities

GlobalHormuz tracker: days 133-135

Oil Companies, Major

Henri Patricot, CFA

US-Iran strikes continue and the US blockade on Iran is back on Analyst

The US and Iran exchanged further strikes over the weekend and these have continued henri.patricot@ubs.com

today (link), further escalating tensions. An offshore drilling platform was struck in +33-14-888 3033

Kuwait (link), the first direct hit on energy infrastructure since early May but one that Nayoung Kim

appears isolated for now. Control over Hormuz remains the core issue: Iran said the strait Analyst

has closed “until further notice,” while the US said it remains open (link). Talks between nayoung.kim@ubs.com

Iran and Omani over Hormuz continued over the weekend (link). Today, US President +44-20-7568 4010

Donald Trump said that the US would get paid for guarding Hormuz, suggesting a Joshua Stone

20% toll (link). He also announced that the blockade on Iranian vessels would be Analyst

reinstated immediately. The blockade had been very effective in reducing Iranian exports joshua.stone@ubs.com

in May-June. +44-20-7901 5588

Josh Silverstein

Hormuz flows slow further as risk weighs on tanker activity Analyst

Shipping activity appears to be declining further as a result of these higher tensions. The josh.silverstein@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3513

latest UBS Evidence Lab data (> Access Dataset) shows that oil and gas tanker crossings

fell to an average of only 6 from 11 last Thursday, with vessel movements broadly Tom Allen

balanced outbound/inbound (Figure 1Oil&gastankerspasingthroughtheStraitofHormuz,innumberofshipsenteringandexitingtheGulf).