First Read MTR Corporation 1H26 Earnings Preview: Stabilizing recurring EBIT

Research evidence excerpt

First Read MTR Corporation 1H26 Earnings Preview: Stabilizing recurring EBIT

Global Research

13 July 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesMTR Corporation

1H26 Earnings Preview: Stabilizing recurring EBIT Hong Kong

Railroads

12-month rating Sell

Recurring EBIT to remain broadly stable in 1H26

We forecast MTRC's recurring EBIT to remain broadly flat in 1H26. We expect transport 12m price target HK$25.00

operations to record a mild decline, as strong cross-boundary patronage growth (+9–

13% YoY in 5M26) is likely to be offset by the fare freeze and cost inflation. Meanwhile,

Price (10 Jul 2026) HK$31.22

ongoing negative rental reversions continue to weigh on earnings, resulting in lower

rental income from both the station commercial and property rental businesses. We RIC: 0066.HK BBG: 66 HK

expect MTRC's tenant retail sales growth to remain broadly in line with the overall Trading data and key metrics

market. That said, rental reversions should continue to improve in 1H26, narrowing from

52-wk range HK$37.54-26.12

the -9% to -10% range recorded in 2025. We also expect higher EBIT contributions

Market cap. HK$192b/US$24.5b

from the overseas and mainland businesses, supported by one-off gains related to

Shares o/s 6,143m (ORD)

contract terminations in the UK and Sweden. In addition, the significantly higher PCS

distribution (HK$614mn versus HK$24mn in 1H25) should help offset the strong Free float 25%

property development profit booking (HK$7.1bn, driven by robust sales at The Pavilia Avg. daily volume ('000) 5,786

Farm Phase III). As a result, we forecast underlying earnings to decline slightly by 2% YoY Avg. daily value (m) HK$188.4

to HK$8.8bn in 1H26. Common s/h equity (12/26E) HK$201b

P/BV (12/26E) 1.0x

Pak Shek Kok Station officially confirmed Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 4.8x