U.S. Large Cap Banks: Final final thoughts on positioning: Where‘s the bar?

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Large Cap Banks: Final final thoughts on positioning: Where‘s the bar?

Global Research

13 July 2026ab

U.S. Large Cap Banks Equities

AmericasFinal final thoughts on positioning: Where's the

bar? Financial

Erika Najarian

Analyst

erika.najarian@ubs.com

Up first: Tuesday's GSIB barrage +1-212-713 2491

After hosting two investor dinners (New York and Chicago) and fielding many phone Zachary Westerlind

calls ahead of the prints, we refresh our thoughts ahead of the coming earnings barrage Associate Analyst

on Tuesday. zachary.westerlind@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2404

GS (Final guess on positioning: Long, against MS). After many quarters of trying to

go against GS's positive momentum, it seems that the buy side is now firmly riding Chintan Prakash

the positive tide. Expectations are high given industry data on investment banking, Associate Analyst

chintan.prakash@ubs.com

and we think the buy side 2Q EPS expectation is between $15-16, vs. the Street at

+1-212-713 3061

$14.46. Where could the sticking point be? Other than discussing a robust

pipeline, investors point back to 180bp of QoQ CET1 consumption in 1Q26, with Charles Brennan

the buy side noting that CET1 <12% (vs. 11.4% current minimum) might be tricky, Associate Analyst

charles.brennan@ubs.com

as despite strong current capital generation the market may think GS may have

+1-212-713 2227

less room to grow RWAs to support future earnings.

JPM (Final guess on positioning: Quietly long). We expect brief prepared remarks

tomorrow, which means that the majority of the hour could be focused on

succession. That said, we do expect the numbers to be strong, especially as we feel

that the "bad news" on expenses have been unveiled while the "good news" on

fees has not been fully communicated. Where could the sticking point be? We