Weekly Check-Up: Post-Acute Care and Dialysis Outperform; ACA Premiums to Rise Again in 2027; Ascension Outbids HCA, Optum on Health System Acquisition

Research evidence excerpt

Weekly Check-Up: Post-Acute Care and Dialysis Outperform; ACA Premiums to Rise Again in 2027; Ascension Outbids HCA, Optum on Health System Acquisition

Healthcare Services UBS Research

Recently Published Industry Notes

2Q26 MCO Preview: Looking for Results to Confirm the Improving Market

Sentiment (July 9, 2026)

Market Sentiment Has Improved; We Look for Q2 Results to Confirm the Positivity

Particularly in MA: With much of the favorability seen in 1Q attributed to weather and

flu, 2Q results will provide an indication of the extent to which underlying core cost

trends are improving across the major business lines. The industry should have at least

five months of medical claims completed and, therefore, greater certainty on whether

there is upside to the current trend assumptions embedded in guidance. Claims data is

particularly important for HUM given the number of new MA members the company

added this year. How the data shakes out in comparison to their bidding for next year

could offer a sense of how much earnings recovery is possible in 2027. By way of

background, HUM has indicated enrollment will be flat or decline, suggesting a pullback

on benefits which may help margins for the company and the industry more broadly.

Beyond HUM, with MA trend seemingly easing relative to expectations, we foresee most

of the focus being on UNH who has suggested it may have 100 bps 'cushion' in its

pricing. We also look for a positive update and guidance review related to OptumHealth.

While there is likely upside to numbers, we would tend to temper expectations as to

how much upside this quarter, given UNH's tendency to invest some of that upside to

reposition the company for long-term growth. (Link to Note)

2Q26 Hospital Preview: Vols, ACA and Bad Debt in View; Question is Whether